The National Hurricane Center predicts that the system will rapidly intensify into Hurricane Helene as it approaches the coast, bringing life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds. The system is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, with sustained winds of up to 125 mph.
A hurricane watch is in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A tropical storm watch is in place to the north and south of the hurricane watch area, from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay County line and from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared an emergency for 41 of the state's 67 counties in an effort to expedite preparations and coordination between the state and local governments. The declaration allows for the mobilization of resources and personnel to respond to the storm's impacts.
The National Hurricane Center warns that the system will bring heavy rain and storm surge to portions of the western Caribbean, causing considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Storm surge and flooding are also expected in Florida.
The system is expected to bring strong, potentially damaging winds to the Southeast, particularly in Florida and Georgia. This could lead to significant power outages and disruptions to daily life.
Heavy rainfall is possible for much of the Southeast starting around midweek, with a level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain in place for much of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and parts of the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center warns that the system's expansion over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico will have far-reaching impacts for the US. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
Helene would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the US this year and the fifth hurricane to slam Florida since 2022. The repeated blows have pushed Florida's insurance market to the brink, with insurers pulling out of the state due to the increasing risk of extreme weather.
The increasing risk of extreme weather due to climate change is a contributing factor to the repeated blows to Florida's insurance market. The state's insurance market is struggling to keep up with the increasing risk of hurricanes.